Week 2 Plug Em In/ Sit Em Out

Week 2 is upon us! Week 1 was definitely a weird one with all the injuries and the surprising backfield snap percentages. Mainly I believe that due to no preseason, players are being eased into the offense and as the weeks progress we should see an increase in snap percentages. Without further ado let’s get into this weeks plug em and sit em’s!

Quarterbacks

Plug em in

• Jared Goff (LA Rams): Goff had a great game against a stellar Cowboys defense, throwing for 275 yards on 20 completions. Malcolm Brown got both the touchdowns resulting to a low fantasy game for Goff. This week Goff is up against a very weak Eagles defense that blew a 17-0 lead to Dwayne Haskins. I’d expect Goff to air out this very weak Eagles defense that might be without DE Barrnet this week.

• Tom Brady (TB Buccaneers): Brady had a poor first half against the Saints last week, he had trouble getting anything going. His main target, Mike Evans, was shut out by a very good Saints defense. This week, Brady is up against a Panthers defense that allowed Derrick Carr to throw for 239 yards and drop 34 points during week 1. With Evans back in the mix, I would expect this to be a blowout by the Bucs and Brady to take advantage of this week defense and regain his hype.

• Mathew Stafford (DET Lions): Mathew Stafford looked great week 1 against a very good Bears defense and without his favorite target, Kenny Golladay. He threw for 297 yards to TJ Hockenson and Danny Amendola. With Golladay expected to be back for the Lions and Matt Patricia desperate to win, Stafford will air out the Packers who defensively did not look great in week 1. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings dropped 34 points on the Packers defense and Adam Thielen had 6/110/2 stat line. Big day coming up for the Stafford/ Golladay duo this Sunday.

Sit em out

• Derrick Carr (LV Raiders): Derrick Carr was able to have a nice game against a weak Panthers defense. This will not be the case this week against a good Saints secondary that picked off Brady twice and shut down Mike Evans. With a young receiver core, Carr will struggle this week against the Saints.

• Deshaun Watson (HOU Texans): The Texans offensive line looked absolutely horrendous in the season opener against the Chiefs. This made it very hard for Watson to find his receivers. Also majority of Watsons fantasy points last week, came during garbage time when Chiefs were up by 3 scores (only had 7 points first half). Texans are against the Ravens defense in week 2 that has an even better defensive line (Derek Wolfe, Calias Cambell, Mathew Judon, Brandon Williams) than the chiefs. The Ravens shut down OBJ (3 catches for 22 yards on 10 targets) and Baker Mayfield (189 yards and 1 int) in week 1s bout against the Browns. Even with Watson’s rushing ability I would be wary of starting him his week against the Ravens.

• Daniel Jones (NY Giants): Jones had a decent game week 1 putting up 19.36 fantasy points against the Steelers in a close game. He will have a much harder time week 2 against a Bears defense that allowed an average of 13.7 fantasy points to QBs in 2019. The Bears defense includes many big names in Tashaun Gipson, Danny Trevathan, Eddie Jackson, Kyle Fuller Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack. Jones will have a tough time this week against a strong Bears secondary.

Running Backs

Plug em in

• Raheem Mostert (SF 49ers): Mostert was the only thing going for the 49ers offense on Sunday against the Cradinals. The surprising part was that Mostert was given goal line work as well. With a 60% snap percentage among RBs in week 1, Mostert put up 25.10 fantasy points. This week Niners are up against a Jets defense that allowed 98 rushing yards to the Bills rushers (Allen, Singletary and Moss). I am expecting a blowout game this week considering how much the Jets offense struggled against the Bills defense, Mostert should have another nice game running out the clock. Deebo Samuel is also still out with an injury which bodes well for Mostert.

• Todd Gurley (ATL Falcons): Todd Gurley put up 13.70 fantasy points playing only 46% of the snaps for the Falcons. This low percentage may be due to the Seahawks airing it out in the first half and HC Dan Quinn wanting to rest Gurley. Quinn did mention before season started that Gurley will see 15-25 carries a game on a weekly basis. Falcons are against a Cowboys defense that maybe without Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee in week 2. In week 1 Cowboys also let Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers run for a 100 yards against them and let uppitiest 2 rushing TDs. Gurley should see a higher snap percentage this week against the Cowboys week run defense.

• Jonathan Taylor (IND Colts) : Phillip Rivers loves throwing to his running backs (Austin Ekeler owners you can cry its okay), in week 1 Rivers targeted Taylor 6 times and Hines 8 times as well as Mack 3 times before he got hurt. Now with Taylor having the starting role he will see an increaser in carries and targets. Colts are also against the Vikings this week who looked decent against the run but still allowed the Packers to have 158 rushing yards (mainly due to Packers running the ball with the lead). The promising part however, is the efficiency of the Packers backs in the passing game and that is where Hines and Taylor will shine this week.

Sit em out

• Mark Ingram (BAL Ravens): 3 headed committee in the Ravens backfield as it seems from week 1. Ingram only played 36% of the snaps and wasn’t targeted at all in the passing game. Even though the Texans defense let CEH run all over them week 1 I would be wary of starting Ingram this week just because of Dobbins and Edwards stealing carries.

• Kenyan Drake (ARI Cardinals): This one hurt to watch week 1. Drake and Edmunds seems to be in a full on committee in the Cardinals backfield. Drake got 16 carries and Edmunds got 6 however, Drake was barely used in the passing game only getting 2 receptions. Edmunds got targeted 5 times by Murray. Cardinals running backs also have a really tough game this week against Chase Young and the talented Washington front 7. Eagles only managed 57 yards with 17 attempts against Washington. Sit Drake this week against the Washington football team

• Melvin Gordon (DEN Broncos): Melvin Gordon owners might have gotten a steal as Phillip Lindsey is expected to miss time due to turf toe. Even then I would bench Gordon this week against a Steelers defense that shut Saquon Barley down to 6 yards on 15 carries! This Steelers defensive line is legit.

Wide Receivers

Plug em in

• Anthony Miller (CHI Bears): Anthony Miller (4/76/1) out played Allen Robinson (5/74/0) week 1 with only 42% snap share! Nagy was easing in Miller who’s returning from a shoulder injury especially since there was no preseason. I would expect this percentage to increase going into week 2 against a very weak Giants secondary that allowed JuJu (6/69/2) and Dionte Johnson (6/57/0) to have great games. If Mitchel Trubisky can keep up his performance I would expect both Robinson and Miller to have great games.

• Cowboys WRs (Dal Cowboys): I was reluctant of drafting Cowboys WRs due to the insane amount of talent on the field however, Dak Prescott was able to get everyone the ball. Cooper, Gallup and Lamb had 18.10, 8.00, 10.90 fantasy points respectively against a good Rams defense that includes pro bowl corner back, Jalen Ramsey. This week against the Falcons who allowed Wilson to throw for 322 yards and drop 4 TDs I would expect the Cowboys offense to have field day.

• Parris Campbell (IND Colts): It was Parris Campbell (6/71/0 on 9 targets) who was Phillip Rivers favorite target week 1 and not veteran TY Hilton (4/53/0 on 9 targets). Campbell plays the same role for the Colts that Keenan Allen played for the Chargers making him a go to target for Rivers. A favorable matchup against a Vikings defense that got aired out by Rodgers in week 1 bodes well for Campbell and the Colts WRs.

Sit em out

• DJ Moore (CAR Panthers): This ones an easy sit em for this week and there are two reasons why. First reason is that Teddy Bridgewater and DJ Moore will be up against a tough Buccaneers defense that shut down Drew Brees (18/30 for 160 yards and 2 tds) and Michael Thomas (3/17/0). Second reason is that DJ Moore wasn’t Teddy Bridgewater favorite target week 1, it was actually Robby Anderson who had 6 receptions fro 114 yards and 1 touchdown. DJ Moore is a must sit this week in a tough matchup.

• DJ Chark (JAC Jaguars): Minshew Mania is back BABY! However, it seems like Chark got left behind. Out of Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault and DJ Chark, Chark had the least amount of targets with 3 and Cole led the way with 5. I don’t expect it to stay the way but I would be wary of Chark until I see him lead the pack. Jags also play the Titans defense this week that have a solid corner back in Malcolm Butler. There are better options available than Chark this week.

• AJ Green (CIN Bengals): AJ Green is finally back and ready to take the league by storm… it might have to wait a couple weeks. Green had a tough matchup week 1 against Casey Hayward and was held to 51 yards and no touchdown. Green has another tough matchup week 2 against Denzel Ward who ranked as a top 25 CB in 2019 according to PFF. Joe Burrow is also getting eased into the NFL and without a preseason its going to take a few weeks. I would be wary of Green this week in a tough matchup.

Tight ends

Plug em in

• Logan Thomas (WAS Football team): Logan Thomas is this years Darren Waller. Thomas and Haskins have already developed a really promising connection. Thomas led the Washington football team in targets (8) against the Eagles week 1. He hauled in only 4 receptions but got 37 yards and 1 td from it. The promising part are the targets. Week 2 the Washington football team are up against the Cardinals who allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2019. With Scary Terry likely to be covered by Pro Bowl corner, Patrick Peterson, Haskins will be looking at Thomas a lot this week.

• CJ Uzomah (CIN Bengals ): Rookie QBs love their tight ends and that was evident in the Bengals versus Chargers game last Sunday. Joe Burrow targeted Uzomah 5 times from which Uzomah hauled in 4 receptions for 45 yards against a tough Chargers defense. This week the Bengals are up against the Browns who just let up 2 TDs to Mark Andrews in week 1s matchup against the ravens. With Denzal Ward on AJ Green and Joe Mixon struggling on the ground, CJ Uzomah and Tyler Boyd are in for a big game on Thursday night.
• Other starts: Tyler Higbee (LA Rams), Jared Cook (NO Saints), Eric Ebron (PIT Steelers)

Sit em out

• Noah Fant (DEN Broncos): Noah Fant was the only viable fantasy starter for the Broncos since Courtland Sutton did not play week 1. Fant flourished catching 5 passes from 6 targets for 81 yards and 1 touchdown. For a relatively new QB like Drew Lock, a tight end can really be a quarterbacks best friend. I would expect this connection to struggle however in week twos matchup against the Steelers who shut down Evan Engram to 2.90 fantasy points and ranked 5h in 2019 against TEs. If Sutton is able to suit up this week expect Fants numbers to drop even more.

• Rob Gronkowski (TB Bucs): Gronkowski has been on our do not draft list since the Bucs added him. Once again this week, he isn’t someone you should start. OJ Howard led all tight ends for the Bucs in targets and receptions. Howard also got looked at in the red zone. Gronk on the other hand did not get a single red zone target. The Panthers defense was surprisingly tough on Darren Waller last week and held him to 45 yards and 0 TDs. I just don’t like Gronk as a fantasy viable TE this year.
• Other Sits: Hayden Hurst (ATL Falcons), Chris Herndon (NY Jets), Jack Doyle (MIN Vikings)

D/ST

Plug em in

• Rams D/ST: Rams are up against a weak Eagles offense that is missing 3 starting offensive linemen and let the Washington defensive line sack Carson Wentz 8 times week 1! Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd are going to eat this week. Also the Rams Secondary led by Jalen Ramsey are much stronger than the Washington secondary so expect more turnovers.
• Other Starts: Bucs D/ST, Niners D/ST, Bills D/ST

Sit em out

• Cowboys D/ST: Matt Ryan and the Falcons aired out the Seahawks defense throwing for 450 yards during week 1. Cowboys also lost Leighton Vander Esch during week 1s loss to the LA Rams. I am expecting this game to be a shootout and neither of these defenses will show up this week.
• Other sits: Titans D/ST, Patriots D/ST, Chargers D/ST

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Defense/ST Fantasy OUTLOOK for 2020:

Every year there is that one defense that surprises everyone and ends up being a league winner. In 2019, that was the Patriots D/ST who averaged 11.8 Fantasy ppg. It’s unlikely that another team in 2020 will do that well because the Patriots had an absurdly easy schedule last year that helped their already-strong defense succeed. In this article our analysts will list teams that are the most likely and the teams that are least likely along with some sleeper defenses to target late in the draft. 

This is list is based on:

• Strength of schedule 
• Division 
• Last year rankings
• FA and post draft additions 

As always if there are any questions about our decisions leave a comment!

Defenses primed for regression:

	Hamza + Eric + Javier (same consensus by all analysts)
1.	Niners D/ST: Loss of Buckner.Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, K’Wuan Williams dealing with soft tissue injuries.Had a superbowl run so the team has had less rest time. There is a trend that the best defense from the previous always experiences a slight regression. (Ex: Bears 2018-2019). Also is in one of the toughest divisions in football (NFC west).
2.	Patriots D/ST: Many key defensive players opted out due to COVID. Dolphins and Bills got stronger offensively (divisional teams). Also one of the toughest schedules for 2020.

Defenses to avoid:

	Hamza	Eric	Javier
1.	Bears D/ST: A struggling offense combined with a tough division puts the Bears defense in a bad position. Lost HaHa Clinton-Dix in the offseason.	NE D/ST: Being drafted at number 6 amongst all defenses is way too high for the reasons stated above.	Rams D/ST: The Rams have two of the best defensive players in football with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. These two helped them finish top 5 last year with 146 points an average of 9.1 points. However, their week 1 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys will prove to be tough after the great additions the Cowboys have made this offseason. You are better off looking elsewhere.
2.	Broncos D/ST: 12th hardest schedule for 2020 according to NFL.com. Offense hasn’t found their groove yet. Same division as Chiefs and chargers. Loss of Chris Harris Jr. and Derek Wolfe.	Texans D/ST: Loss of DJ Reader, Jonathan Joseph, Mingo and Tashaun Gibson. In 2019 they ranked 19th overall as a defense after ranking 11th in 2018.Play the Chiefs week 1.Same division as Colts and Titans.	Tampa Bay D/ST: The Buccaneers were able to finish in the top 10 last season by having the 5th highest turnovers in the league. Tom Brady’s arrival will also put the defense in better game scripts. However, they get a nightmare week 1 matchup against the New Orleans Saints. They are not worth drafting and will be better off as a waiver wire pickup if available.

Defenses to target:

	Hamza	Eric	Javier
1.	Vikings D/ST: Free agency additions- Michael Pierce, Trae Waynes, Anthony Zettel. Also drafted CB Jeff Gladney at pick 31 in the first round.	Cowboys D/ST: The Cowboys have relatively easy matchups against the NFC East opponents. Finishing last year at 17, the Cowboys have added Dontari Poe, Everson Griffen, and Aldon Smith. Their front seven is greatly improved and should be able to force turnovers with ease.	Bills D/ST: Talented defense and mediocre division. Offense will put them in favorable game scripts leading to opposing teams having to air it out. AFC east QBs they will face six times a year: Newton/Stidham, Darnold, Fitzpatrick/ Tua.
2.	Colts D/ST: Added Deforest Buckner, Sheldon Day, Xavier Rhodes in free agency with Juston Houston, Darius Leonord, Malik Hooker and Kenny Moore	Chargers D/ST: Finishing last season at 7, the Chargers added top CB Chris Harris Jr. and DT Linval Joseph. While they do face the Chiefs twice a year, they should be considered otherwise weekly starters.	Colts D/ST: Easy schedule and great front seven for those sack points.
3.	Saints D/ST: 9th easiest schedule. Ended 9th in 2019 in fantasy football at 8.4fppg and managed to keep most of the defense.	Ravens D/ST: Safe pick as the Ravens have been the second best in the league since 2018. They have added rookie Patrick Queen, Malik Harrison and Justin Madubuike.	Chargers D/ST: Formidable defense that added Chris Harris and Linval Joseph in free agency, then drafted Kenneth Murray.

2020 Sleeper Runningbacks

There’s no doubt that the running back has quickly become the most valued position in fantasy football, with 14 out of the first 20 picks in PPR leagues being starting running backs. Being able to find a “sleeper” running back outside of these first 14 runningbacks can prove to be an invaluable asset for depth or for trade purposes. In particular, there are three quality sleeper running backs I am attempting to target late in my drafts. 

I think it’s important to understand why so many people are attempting to draft so many RBs so early. Last year, in 2019 PPR leagues, the “premium” RBs (Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliot, Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry) averaged a little under 20 PPG (McCaffery averaged 30 which blows my mind). Mark Ingram and Nick Chubb were next up with approximately 16 PPG, which is nearly a 20% decrease in points. This leads you to the second tier of running backs (Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Le’veon Bell, Todd Gurley, etc), who were all around 14 PPG. Drafting one of those premium backs gives you a 30% point advantage over a tier 2 starter, which ends around RB 20. Wide receivers and quarterbacks have a way more stable core. For receivers, we don’t see a 30% fall off from the premium receivers until you exit the top 30.  Quarterbacks have a quicker fall off, but most standard leagues only draft one quarterback so there are more than enough solid fantasy options. 

The top RB 1 options(McCaffery, Zeke, Cook, Barkley, etc) are talented running backs who have the sole control of their backfield. Finding a runningback of their talent as a sleeper is always difficult, however finding options who are in position to take the bulk of snaps is not. One of the most important things I look at is the opportunity for success. This is why I believe David Johnson can finally return to his 2016 form, as he is the primary option for a Texans offense that will need to generate offense without DeAndre Hopkins. It is also why I believe David Montgomery will be able to out-perform his draft position by a large amount as the sole option on the Chicago Bears. Jerick McKinnon also has a chance to become a huge contributor to one of the leagues top rushing offenses. 

David Johnson: Currently being drafted at RB 20 (according to FantasyFootballCalculator), David Johnson has a legitimate chance at finishing in the top-10 RBs. Finishing as RB1 in 2016 and RB10 in 2018, injuries have prevented him from succeeding in 2017 and 2019. I feel like most fantasy owners have been burned by him at least once in the past few years (I know I have), but I believe he is worth one more shot. Bell, Fournette, Carson, Gordon, and Gurley are all being drafted slightly ahead of David Johnson. However, unlike Carson and Gordon, Johnson represents the clear-cut starting RB in his backfield. Bell is forced to rush behind a nearly brand-new offensive line who get 14 padded practices to gain chemistry and face one of the hardest schedules in football. Fournette’s breakout season last year was fueled by his high volume of targets and receptions. However, the signing of new OC Jay Gruden’s favorite third down back, Chris Thompson, doesn’t bode well for his pass volume. 

David Johnson comes to a team that just provided Carlos Hyde a 1,000 yard season behind a run-blocking offensive line that ranked slightly above average with the addition of Laremy Tunsil (per Football Outsiders). On the Cardinal’s offensive line that was ranked one spot below the Texans, Johnson was able to reach RB 7 through 6 weeks before his injury in 2019. He showed he could be a reliable pass catcher after his 2017 wrist injury, and continued to show his explosive running until he went down with an injury. By the time he recovered, HC Kliff Klingsbury was focused on seeing what the Cardinals had with RB Kenyan Drake, and benched Johnson for the season. Bill O’Brian made a career-deciding trade when he sent Hopkins to the Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson and draft picks. If David Johnson fails, Texans fans will be calling for O’Brian’s head. It is in his best interest to set Johnson up for success, and by trading that much, I feel like that is his intention. If David Johnson can avoid freak injuries, I believe he will easily surpass his RB 20 ADP and should give you that “premium” RB point advantage. 

David Montgomery: Montgomery has an ADP of 42, putting him at RB 23. I completely understand if you want no part of the Bear’s offense (except for Allen Robinson of course). Trubisky essentially became a national joke with his terrible 2019 season. David Montgomery, who was drafted as a top-30 pick last year, largely disappointed with his RB 25 finish. The Bear’s offensive line was a large part of his struggle. Projected to finish as a top-10 unit, the line had the 28th worst run blocking metrics in the NFL (per Football Outsiders). David Montgomery was in the bottom 30 for yards before contact, as the line struggled to communicate and make the right blocks. The Bears offensive line made multiple improvements, signing two former top-50 picks and drafting a couple depth pieces. If they can exceed their atrocious finish last season, Montgomery should see a huge increase in rush yards.

There are many positives for Montgomery other than an improved line. In 2019, he gained 44% of his yards after contact. Montgomery, who was one of the best tackle-breakers in all of NCAA history, was 6th in the NFL with 28 broken tackles. Now, his rehab doctor reported he dropped 4% body fat and gained one pound, which means he put on a huge amount of muscle in the offseason. His new-found strength should prove a huge asset in the red zone as well. In fact, Montgomery led the NFL by taking 85% of his team’s red zone carries, the highest in the NFL. If Trubisky can fix some of his struggles (which Chicago beat writers are saying he has), Montgomery should see way more scoring opportunities to improve his 6 touchdowns in 2019. While Montgomery may not have the proven ceiling of David Johnson, he is the only lead back left on the draft board past the third round. A prolific college runner, Montgomery has the chance to explode and give you a massive advantage in your league. He faces a league average rushing strength of schedule (per FantasyPros). At the worst, he retains his RB 25 spot from last season, and you get what you drafted. But if you are able to grab a WR or two before this pick, I think he offers a safe floor with a high ceiling.

Jerick Mckinnon: McKinnon hasn’t been fantasy relevant since his Vikings days three years ago, but you wanted a sleeper right? With an ADP outside of the top-170, he is likely going undrafted in nearly all leagues. The 49ers seemed to have found their lead back in Raheem Mostert, but I wouldn’t be so sure. Remember, two seasons ago, Kyle Shanahan signed McKinnon and made him a top-5 paid back in the league. When he tore his ACL in the last practice of the preseason, Shanahan said he was worried because his whole playbook was designed around McKinnon. One of the highest scoring offenses in the league with a lead back sounds like fantasy football gold. It’s why people are so enticed by Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The 49ers beat reporters are saying McKinnon looks great in camp, and still appears to have his game-breaking speed and agility. He has been taking multiple passes and it appears like he will play a swiss army knife role in Shanahan’s offense this year, lining up all over the field. 

For essentially a free pick, you get a handcuff with possible stand-alone value in an offense that dominated with the run last season. Mostert has struggled with injuries in the past and Tevin Coleman was wildly inefficient last year. If Jerick McKinnon looks like what Shanahan paid so much for years ago, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes in the top-30. We saw what Shanahan could do with UDFA Matt Brieda just based on his speed. If McKinnon is given similar opportunities, he should pull off big plays left and right. After not playing for two seasons and taking heavy heat from 49ers fans left and right, I wouldn’t be surprised if McKinnon plays with a chip on his shoulder this year.

With running backs all being drafted so early, it is difficult to find a supposed “sleeper”. I believe that David Johnson and David Montgomery will both outperform their ADP by a wide margin, and provide extreme value in one of fantasy football’s most desired positions. While McKinnon may not amount to anything this season, he has the potential to be the lead back for the 49ers. He is the one late dart throw I am taking in many of my leagues just to hold onto, solely because of what I perceive his ceiling to be. Of course, many others may disagree, and if you do let us know on Twitter!